Bitcoin Price to $1 Million? Arthur Hayes Says AI Credit Crisis Could Trigger a Massive BTC Surge

Arthur Hayes has reiterated his long-term prediction that Bitcoin will be worth $1 million in 2030, citing debt-fueled investment demand for AI infrastructure as a possible catalyst for the sharp price increases that could lead to higher Bitcoin prices.

The chief investment officer at Maelstrom predicts the key period for the investment strategy will be late 2027 or early 2028. Hayes does not believe companies will fail due to technology disruptions, though. He believes investors should consider financing options related to data centers, computer equipment, and other infrastructure needed to support growing demand for AI products and services.

Hayes says the recent construction boom is more like the credit crisis than the dot-com crash. Many construction projects are highly leveraged. The main asset underlying the projects, GPUs, can lose value quickly compared with the value of loans used to fund the projects. Both builders and lenders face the risk of losses if project revenues do not match expectations and the collateral securing their loans loses value.

That mismatch in timescales is one factor leading to Hayes’s projection that AI investment will decline between 2027 and 2028. Hayes notes that repayment schedules for computer investments typically last five or six years, while advancements in computer technologies, including those relevant to AI applications, occur over shorter time horizons of two or three years. 

Slower AI investment under Hayes’s projection may result in reduced funding for some AI projects and make it more difficult for lenders to recoup their funds, prompting government action.

Hayes thinks government intervention will take the form of increased fiat money supply. Government actions he suggests to help financial institutions and other businesses affected by AI credit losses include purchasing computing power for other businesses in the AI industry. These and other steps to increase the money supply may lead to more investment in Bitcoin and drive its price up to $1 million.

Read More: Bitcoin Whales Are Buying Again: 113,950 BTC Added in 10 Weeks — What Comes Next?

The forecast is speculative. Hayes says he is unsure which borrower will cause a collective credit event and when and at what price Bitcoin will hit a low point. Previous iterations of Hayes’s scenario showed significant BTC price declines preceding the expected liquidity increase. The timing of any such events is uncertain.

Independent sources provide information on the magnitude of funding opportunities related to AI infrastructure. Apollo estimates more than $2 trillion in additional investment-grade debt and over $1 trillion in additional debt and other financing from private placements and other project mechanisms, including equipment and project financing, in addition to public debt offerings, due to market concentration issues with public debt offerings.

U.S. insurance regulators are ramping up oversight of private lending investments. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners issued a report raising concerns about marketability and other issues related to private loans and approved new reporting requirements for private lending investments by insurers to take effect at the end of 2026.

Read More: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $2.4 Billion: Is BTC Setting Up for Another Major Rally?

Hayes’s projected $1 million price is a macroeconomic prediction rather than a specific price projection. It is based on the assumption that significant pressure on debt-financed AI infrastructure will lead to regulatory actions and increased Bitcoin liquidity and demand.

The post Bitcoin Price to $1 Million? Arthur Hayes Says AI Credit Crisis Could Trigger a Massive BTC Surge appeared first on Bitcoin Foundation.